Nigeria’s political landscape is once again undergoing seismic tremors, with a wave of defections tilting the balance of power in favor of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general elections. Over the past year, more than 300 PDP members, including governors, senators, House of Representatives members, and prominent stakeholders, have decamped to the APC, citing reasons ranging from “development needs” to internal party rifts.
Yet, beyond the rhetoric of “Renewed Hope,” many question: Is this political realignment driven by performance, or by survival and coercion?
A Historical Déjà Vu?
Defections are not new in Nigeria’s democracy. The Fourth Republic has witnessed recurring waves of elite migration from opposition to ruling parties, often around pre-election cycles. In 2014, similar mass defections from the PDP helped the APC sweep to power in 2015. By 2018, another exodus, this time from the APC to the PDP, marked the countdown to 2019.
But the 2025 defection tsunami feels different, both in scale and coordination. The ruling APC, under President Bola Tinubu, appears to be consolidating power not just electorally, but institutionally.
From Delta to Kano, Osun to Edo, what began as quiet consultations has turned into an open season for political cross-carpeting.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
According to data compiled from The PUNCH and other media sources:
Over 300 PDP members defected to APC between February 2024 and February 2025.
Three sitting governors are rumored to be on the verge of switching allegiance.
In Delta State, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, former governor Ifeanyi Okowa (PDP’s 2023 Vice Presidential candidate), all 25 LGA chairmen, and the entire state assembly are reported to have agreed to cross to the APC.
Kano South Senator Kawu Sumaila and several NNPP legislators are either defecting or negotiating.
Labour Party’s Senator Neda Imasuen (Edo) is also reportedly set to join APC.
Prominent names like Senator Ned Nwoko, Pius Anyim, Shehu Sani, Philip Shaibu, and even old PDP guard like Shuibu Oyedokun have joined the wave.
Coercion or Conviction?
The opposition parties, PDP, NNPP, LP, and the CUPP insist these defections are not genuine endorsements of APC policies but a survival tactic in the face of intimidation and political persecution.
Timothy Osadolor of the PDP National Working Committee argues:
> “The APC has weaponized state institutions like the EFCC, ICPC, DSS to hound opposition voices into submission.”
This claim is not without precedent. Under various administrations, selective anti-corruption campaigns have often coincided with defections. In 2018, former PDP members accused the Buhari-led EFCC of dangling immunity in exchange for defection.
The APC, however, insists otherwise. National Publicity Secretary Felix Morka praised the defectors for “believing in the Renewed Hope Agenda,” touting fiscal discipline, infrastructure projects, and stabilizing exchange rates as reasons for the party’s appeal.
Deputy Publicity Secretary Duro Meseko added:
> “Nigerians are not fools. They’re seeing the results—fuel prices are coming down, forex is stabilizing, infrastructure is booming.”
Yet, basic indicators tell a mixed story
Inflation remains above 30%, with food inflation causing severe hardship.
So the question remains: What is the real motivation behind the mass defection?
The Kwankwaso Factor
Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, leader of the NNPP and former Kano governor, is rumored to be negotiating with the APC—a dramatic shift that could decimate what remains of Nigeria’s strongest third-force movement since 1999.
If Kwankwaso defects, it may spell the effective end of the NNPP as a national force and signal a total realignment of Northern political structures under the APC umbrella.
Opposition’s Last Stand?
CUPP National Secretary Peter Ahmeh called the defections “shameful” and vowed that a broad coalition of like-minds would “sweep APC and its opportunists out in 2027.”
But observers are skeptical. Without reforms in internal party democracy, clear ideological alternatives, and sustained grassroots mobilization, the opposition may remain fragmented and reactionary, allowing APC to win by default rather than merit.
Ultimately: What Does This Mean for Nigeria?
The ongoing wave of defections might strengthen the APC in the short term, but it poses serious risks to Nigeria’s democratic credibility. A ruling party bloated with defectors from every ideological background becomes a monolith without cohesion, leading to internal contradictions, power struggles, and disillusionment among voters.
If opposition parties do not present a united, credible, and principled front, free from internal sabotage and driven by clear governance alternatives, the 2027 elections may become a coronation rather than a contest.
And for the Nigerian people, it may again be a case of “change without choice.”
By Hon. Chimazuru Nnadi-Oforgu
Duruebube Uzii na Abosi
